The Annual Economics Conference of the Central Bank of Uruguay brings together national and international researchers each year to present original research and discuss recent developments in various areas of economics, establishing itself as one of the country’s leading forums for academic exchange.
Applied Economics for Understanding Today's Challenges
During the event, researchers from the faculty presented six papers in panel sessions devoted to topics such as inflation, the labor market, productivity, credit, and industrial organization. This participation reflects the university’s research activities and its contribution to the academic debate on economic challenges of national importance.
How Public Information Influences Inflation Expectations
Rodrigo Lluberas, coordinator of the Bachelor’s Degree in Economics and a researcher specializing in macroeconomics, inflation, and economic expectations, presented the paper “Official Statistics Release and Inflation Expectations”, co-authored with Serafín Frache.
The study examines how the official release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) affects firms’ inflation expectations. Using data from business surveys in Uruguay, it shows that firms that respond after the official data is released adjust their projections more frequently, reduce their forecasting errors, and exhibit less dispersion in their expectations.
Motherhood and Career Development
Agustina Affonso, assistant coordinator of the Bachelor’s Degree in Finance, whose research focuses on labor economics and public policy, presented “The Slow Climb for Women with Children: Evidence from Internal Labor Markets”, co-authored with Fernando Borraz.
The study examines how motherhood affects career progression within organizations that have pay scales and internal promotion systems. Using administrative records spanning nearly two decades, it finds that gender differences are most pronounced among those with children under the age of 18, as mothers advance more slowly in their careers during their early working years, leading to persistent gaps in their earning trajectories.
Credit, programmes , and Market Power
Santiago Acerenza, a researcher specializing in econometrics and applied microeconomics, presented two research papers.
The first, “Do Cash Transfers Improve Credit Performance? Evidence from Low-Income Borrowers”, co-authored with Graciela Sanromán, analyzes the effect of cash programmes on the credit performance of low-income households. Using administrative records, it concludes that these transfers have little impact on the level of indebtedness, although they do alter the dynamics of compliance and default.
The second, alongside the Dr. Nestor Gandelman, is titled “The Markup Falsification Adaptive Set” and proposes a new methodology for estimating the price markup over marginal costs when the traditional assumptions of economic models are not fully met. The paper offers tools that allow for more robust estimates and assess the sensitivity of the results to potential flaws in the models used.
The Impact of a Temporary Reduction in the VAT Rate
Néstor Gandelman, associate dean for research at the School of Management and Social Sciences, recognized for his work in applied economics and public policy, presented the paper “From Slaughterhouses to Consumers: Pass-Through of a Temporary VAT Cut Along the Vertical Supply Chain”. This paper was co-authored with Santiago Acerenza—a researcher at ORT—, Bruno Engel—an advanced student in the Bachelor’s program in Economics at ORT—and Leandro Zipitría—from the University of the Republic—.
The study examines the effect of a temporary VAT exemption applied to a cut of beef in Uruguay. The results show that the tax reduction was passed on almost entirely to the prices paid by consumers and led to a temporary increase in sales volumes throughout the production chain, without generating any lasting effects once the measure ended.
New Tools for Measuring Production Efficiency
Francisco Rosas, a professor of Econometrics and Statistics at ORT and a researcher at the Center for Economic Research, presented alongside Santiago Acerenza the paper “Stochastic Frontier Meets Breakdown Frontier”.
This study develops a methodological approach to assess the robustness of measures of productive efficiency when traditional statistical assumptions are relaxed. The proposed approach makes it possible to quantify the extent to which conclusions about the performance of firms or organizations remain valid in the face of potential specification errors in econometric models.