https://youtu.be/nLw9GN_5Ijc
“The Abraham Accords marked a paradigm shift. Before they were signed, it was commonly believed that no Arab country, other than Egypt and Jordan, would normalize relations with Israel until the conflict with the Palestinian Arabs was resolved. That was the prevailing paradigm in the region and around the world,” noted Dr. Yoav Tenembaum—a professor at the School of Political Science and International Relations at Tel Aviv University—during the conference “The Present and Future of the Abraham Accords.”
The event, organized by the Department of International Studies, took place on Monday, August 9, 2021. On this occasion, Dr. Yoav Tenembaum assessed, nearly a year after their signing, the current status of these agreements, which normalized relations between the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Morocco, Sudan, and Bahrain with Israel.
The normalization of relations
“We’re talking about a diplomatic process initiated by the United States, under then-President Donald Trump. These are agreements aimed at normalization and peace.”
In September 2020, former President Trump, joined at the White House by former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior officials from Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, celebrated the normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and the two Persian Gulf monarchies: the UAE and Bahrain. These agreements were collectively known as the Abraham Accords.
The Role of the United States
“Israel was already engaged in dialogue with Arab countries. So why was it necessary for the United States to step in as a mediator?” Tenembaum asked. “Often, to resolve international conflicts or to formalize a relationship that already existed informally, a mediator is needed. We’re talking about an international superpower that has the means to deter or persuade.”
The expert explained that this deterrent is possible because the United States “has the means to do so,” by cutting off diplomatic, economic, or military support. “But there is also persuasion, which is what I would call the use of positive incentives. And that is exactly what the United States did in this case.”
For example, “one of the reasons the United Arab Emirates agreed to reach an agreement with Israel was because the United States promised them that, if the agreement were signed, it would be willing to sell them F-35s, the most advanced fighter jet in existence.”
“The United States, as a mediator, did not have purely altruistic intentions. It has a strong interest in seeing Israel and the Arab world reach peace and normalization agreements. Essentially, its aim was to try to solidify what was emerging as an alliance between much of the Arab world and Israel in an effort to contain Iran and its allies in the region.”
“The United States also wants to limit China’s influence in the region, and this, in part, explains the Abraham Accords. Let’s not forget that, in early 2021, China and Iran signed an economic cooperation agreement.”
The origin of the agreements
The expert noted that, in his opinion, the main conflict in the Middle East is not the Arab-Israeli conflict but the one between Sunnis and Shiites.
“At the same time, there is a widespread perception that Iran and its allies pose the greatest threat in the region. This shared concern contributed to the formation, several years ago, of a tacit alliance between Israel and several Arab countries. We must be very discerning in order to distinguish between public statements and the reality behind the scenes.”
“Often, public statements by Arab leaders can be very hostile toward Israel, but that doesn’t mean these countries don’t cooperate with Israel and maintain a very close dialogue on national security issues,” the scholar added.
Finally, he noted: “This tacit alliance that already existed paved the way for these formal agreements; it’s not as if the situation went from zero to 100 overnight.”