https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYecw_K_qkU
“The rest of the world’s view of the conflict does not align with the European perspective, and that is to be expected. Europeans feel more threatened, but we cannot expect a government in India, Brazil, or Uruguay to interpret a threat that is so far away in the same way,” stated Dr. Filipe Luis Vasconcelos during the conference “The Impact of the Invasion of Ukraine on the European Process.”
The conference took place on Wednesday, April 26, in a hybrid format: some participants attended in person at the Pocitos Campus of Universidad ORT Uruguay others joined online via HyFlex®. It was held as part of the activities of the Jean Monnet Module (ThinkEur)of the Department of International Studies at Universidad ORT Uruguay.
Dr. Filipe Luis Vasconcelos—professor in the Department of International Relations at the Autonomous University of Lisbon (Portugal), visiting professor at the Lisbon University Institute (ISCTE–IUL), and visiting professor at the ORT School of Management and Social Sciences—shared his conclusions on the impact that the invasion of Ukraine has had on international politics.
An unusual moment
First, the expert shared his perspective on this topic.
“From my perspective, what we witnessed in 2022 was a territorial invasion by one state against another. The sovereignty of one state was violated through a classic war of invasion, a war of occupation and territorial annexation.”
He emphasized that international relations are at “an unusual juncture.” He noted: “We have long taught that war is an anachronism, that it has disappeared, or that it is limited to certain regions of the world, and suddenly we find ourselves reverting to the language of the 19th and 20th centuries. This took us all by surprise.”
Two levels of analysis
Vasconcelos identified two levels of analysis to understand what is happening in Europe.
First, he emphasized that Russia is characterized by a shrinking population, has not achieved significant technological advancements, and lacks a diversified economy.
Second, there is currently a rising power: it is not Russia, but the People's Republic of China.
“This seems to run counter to reality. The global reality today is dominated by concerns over China’s rise, but while that is the main issue, Russia is invading Ukraine,” the expert said.
The Complexity of Europe
He added: “Within the European context, it is necessary to understand the complexity of Europe and how, after World War II, the various powers have been consolidating their positions. France wants to be an alternative to the United States. Germany focuses on its commercial and economic dimensions.”
Vasconcelos also mentioned the issue of terrorism. In this area, “Europe operates with internal security policies and has to invest in internal security and the police. This investment has reinforced the idea that the threat does not come from external powers that are sovereign entities but from non-state, non-sovereign forces.”
The expert provided a historical overview of the relationship between Russia and Ukraine, concluding that tensions between the two countries began prior to the invasion. “Russia did not invade Ukraine in February 2022. It began invading it in early 2014. What happened in 2022 is the culmination of what had already begun.”
Calculation errors
“Russia has miscalculated with regard to Europe. Russia does not value Europe. There is a miscalculation, first of all, with regard to the West, and secondly, with regard to Europe.”
In that regard, Vasconcelos noted that there were three key factors: national identity was much more developed than in 2014, there was strong financial support from the West—primarily from the United States—and the third factor was Europe’s clear unity.
The invasion of Ukraine does not appear to have had the impact the Kremlin had hoped for, and there is a (nearly) unprecedented level of unity on the issue.
“Russia never imagined that the West would be so committed to defending Ukraine. Nor did it anticipate the Ukrainians’ resistance. National identities solidify much more quickly than we often realize, especially when there is an external stimulus.”
Uncertainty and risk
According to the expert, the big question right now is “how long all of this will take.” “The fact is that the public is feeling the impact of the war’s consequences, and that is the main damage. We must take into account the economic consequences of the war and how they interact with the electorate and electoral processes in these countries.”
He concluded: “The main risk is fatigue on the part of the electorate or domestic political groups, which couldpressure governments into a war that cannot be indefinite.”