“Argentina, despite having a catastrophic economy, has a low level of political violence and a high level of democratic stability and social peace,” said Andrés Malamud—who holds a Ph.D. in Social and Political Sciences from the European University Institute (IUE) in Florence and is a researcher at the University of Lisbon (Portugal)—during the online conference “Argentina: A Stalled Democracy.”
The event, which was part of a series of lectures organized by the Department of International Studies at Universidad ORT Uruguay, took place on Monday, September 7, 2020.
In 1983, after half a century of instability, Argentina restored democracy. Since then, it has endured three military coups, three terrorist attacks, two periods of hyperinflation, a currency collapse, and several presidential resignations, but democracy has endured.
“Why does the economy collapse but not politics, which is, in principle, responsible for the economy?” asked the expert, noting that there are two reasons for this.
According to the expert, the stability of democracy stems from the deep social roots of political identities and the restraining effect of institutions.
On the one hand, there is a“social anchor.” “Identities are firm and deeply rooted. People don’t change, and society is divided into two camps.” He asserted that those who are Peronists remain so, and those who are not remain so, regardless of what happens.
On the other hand,“institutions limit options and favor those already in the system. The electoral system does not readily allow new entrants and penalizes outsiders. Democracy is maintained by the same players, the same political parties.”
At the same time, “the mar choppy on the surface, but there are meters and meters of calm water beneath. In Argentina, we see a lot of turmoil at the presidential level, but the calm waters are the provinces. It is in the provinces where people almost always vote for the same candidates.”
Malamud also pointed out that some provinces are overrepresented while others are underrepresented. For example, “the province of Buenos Aires is enormous, but it has minimal influence on national politics.”
With regard to the social structure, he noted that in Argentina approximately 5% of the population is wealthy, 30% is economically marginalized, and 65% belongs to the middle class. At the same time, the middle class is divided into unionized wage earners, non-unionized wage earners, and the self-employed.
In this regard, rather than thinking of society as a pyramid, Malamud suggested thinking of it as a rectangle. “Peronism or anti-Peronism is a diagonal line that cuts across this social structure.”
“Most unionized workers are Peronists. Almost the entire lower class is as well. Among non-unionized workers, it’s about half and half. Self-employed workers are mostly non-Peronists. There’s a trend line that goes up or down depending on economic performance and who’s in power.”
“If the economy is doing well, the government benefits (whichever party is in power). If the economy is doing poorly, the opposition benefits,” said the scholar, adding that while this dynamic varies, “the identities remain fixed.”
“In Argentina, most people who vote for Peronism are Peronists; it’s a core part of their identity,” Malamud said. “In Uruguay, many people decide to switch their vote. In Argentina, this is less common. Identification with the party is stronger.”
“How is the Argentine political landscape represented? It is not an ideological spectrum of left and right. The ideological spectrum is Peronism versus non-Peronism, and within each of these poles there is a left and a right. There is a Peronist left and a Peronist right. There is an anti-Peronist left and an anti-Peronist right.”
“Under President Raúl Alfonsín, the antagonism eased somewhat. After 2001, it was no longer referred to as ‘Peronism’ but rather as ‘Kirchnerism,’ which led to a new wave of radicalization: the political divide.”
“Many people imagined there might be a wide central avenue running through the poles, but that didn’t happen,” Malamud said. “The central avenue ended up being a dead-end street.”